SWS: Dissatisfaction with Arroyo in cities on the rise

MANILA, Philippines – Less than two weeks before her presumably last State of the Nation Address, President Arroyo faces stagnant dissatisfaction ratings, according to the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll, with discontent on the rise in urban areas, traditionally a hotbed of the opposition.

SWS’s second-quarter survey on the public’s satisfaction with President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo remains “bad" at -31, but when broken down the negative rating reveals more than meets the eye.

SWS said in an article posted on its Web site that the President’s dissatisfaction rating actually dropped in rural areas, but the gain was offset by a notable rise in discontent among people in urban centers.

It also noted that President Arroyo generally gained satisfaction points in Mindanao and the Visayas areas, but the gains buckled under the weight of rising dissatisfaction in Luzon, minus Metro Manila.

As the survey shows, dissatisfaction dropped among the poorest (Class E) but intensified among the A, B, C, and D classes. Between the sexes, discontent with Arroyo dipped among women, but heightened among men.

But the overall rating still yielded a "bad" card at -31 compared to the -32 in the previous quarter, the SWS said.

Accompanying the SWS second-quarter survey results is a graph that could sum up Arroyo’s troubles, if she is considering her place in history as she prepares her farewell address to Congress.

Comparing her satisfaction ratings with her predecessors’, the graph shows that since the Hello Garci election scandal broke in 2004, the President has not only scored consistently lower than any previous president surveyed, she never achieved satisfaction results above 0.

In contrast, her predecessors Corazon Aquino, Fidel Ramos, and Joseph Estrada never once dipped below 0 in their public satisfaction ratings. The highest ever was nearly a positive 80 rating by the now ailing Aquino in 1986.

If Arroyo maintains her negative ratings until the end of her term next June, she will surely go down as the president with the lowest public satisfaction ratings in modern history.

Her more immediate concern however could be what may be stirring in the cities. An urban riot by pro-Erap forces in 2001 occurred right outside the gates of Malacanang, arguably the gravest threat to her administration.

"Urban satisfaction with Pres. Arroyo went to 23% in June, from 26% in February, while dissatisfaction went to 61% from 58%, putting her urban net satisfaction rating to a bad -37 now, from a bad net -32 before," it noted.

SWS said the rating was worse than average in Metro Manila, worsening to a bad -46 (19% satisfied, 65% dissatisfied) now from a bad net -44 (21% satisfied, 65% dissatisfied) previously.

Meanwhile, Rural satisfaction with Mrs. Arroyo went to 28 percent from 26 percent, while dissatisfaction went to 52 percent from 59 percent, bringing her rural net rating to a poor -23 from a bad -33.

The survey also showed that dissatisfaction eased in Class E at "poor -22" (30% satisfied, 52% dissatisfied) in June, from a "bad -42" (20% satisfied, 61% dissatisfied) in February.

But dissatisfaction worsened in class ABC, at a poor -28 (27% satisfied, 55% dissatisfied) now, from a poor -19 before, and in class D or the masa, at a bad -34 (24% satisfied, 58% dissatisfied) now, from a bad -31 (28% satisfied, 59% dissatisfied) previously.

Among women, satisfaction with Mrs. Arroyo improved to 28 percent in June from 25 percent in February, while dissatisfaction went down to 54 percent from 60 percent, bringing women’s net satisfaction score to a poor -26 from a bad -35.

Among men, satisfaction with the President dropped to 24 percent from 27 percent, while dissatisfaction rose slightly to 59 percent from 58 percent, bringing her net rating to a bad -35 from a bad -30.

SWS said net satisfaction with Mrs. Arroyo became less negative in Mindanao, at poor net -21 (31% satisfied, 53% dissatisfied, correctly rounded) in June, from a bad -40 (22% satisfied, 62% dissatisfied) in February.

It said the rating also became less negative in the Visayas, at a poor -28 (30% satisfied, 57% dissatisfied, correctly rounded) now, from a bad -33 (28% satisfied, 61% dissatisfied) previously.

But it said dissatisfaction intensified in Luzon outside Metro Manila, at a bad -32 (23% satisfied, 55% dissatisfied) now, from a poor -24 (29% satisfied, 54% dissatisfied, correctly rounded) before.

The SWS said that the overall rating “is similar to the bad net -32 (26% satisfied, 59% dissatisfied, correctly rounded) in February 2009, but lower compared to poor -24 (29% satisfied, 53% dissatisfied) in December 2008."

SWS scales Net Satisfaction rating as follows: "very good" for +50 and above; "good" for +30 to +49; "moderate" for +10 to +29; "neutral" for +9 to -9; "poor" for -10 to -29; "bad" for -30 to -49; and "very bad" for -50 or lower.

Conducted between June 19-22, 2009 , the survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,500 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, Visayas, and Mindanao, and 600 for the rest of Luzon.

Sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, Visayas, and Mindanao, and ±4% for Balance Luzon, applied to the survey.

The quarterly SWS survey on public satisfaction with the President is a non-commissioned item, and is included on SWS’s own initiative and released as a public service.

GMA News